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X-WR-CALNAME:A Theory of Elite-initiated Democratization\, Illustrated with
  the Case of Myanmar
X-WR-TIMEZONE:Pacific Time (US & Canada)
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260908T060230Z
UID:tag:localist.com\,2008:EventInstance_47507894562593
DTSTART:20240926T190000Z
DTEND:20240926T201500Z
DESCRIPTION:Around half of democratic transitions are "top-down" in the sen
 se that the autocrats write the constitution that governs post-transition 
 democracy (Albertus and Menaldo 2015). We analyze a model of elite-driven 
 democratization\, illustrating its logic and implications in the case of M
 yanmar.  In the model\, continued dictatorship is costly and inefficient d
 ue to the risk of a violent rebellion and\, possibly\, the increase in aid
 \, trade\, and geopolitical support that would follow democratization. But
  the autocrats fear that fair elections would lead quickly to their margin
 alization. We argue\, contrary to a common suggestion\, that paper constit
 utions that provide veto points for the old elite are not by themselves su
 fficient protection. Top-down "democratic transitions" are really cases of
  power-sharing\, in which the old elite retains de facto control of rent s
 treams that the opposition cannot unilaterally seize simply by changing la
 ws. As the military's coup threat declines over time\, democracy may event
 ually "consolidate."  If the coup threat declines dramatically and is anti
 cipated to do so\, a reversion back to autocracy is possible. We also show
  how the prospect of increased international aid\, trade\, and investment 
 makes top-down transitions more likely\, though only when post-transition 
 power-sharing is feasible.\n\nABOUT THE SPEAKER\n\nJames D. Fearon is Geba
 lle Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences\, and Professor of 
 Political Science at Stanford University\, and a Senior Fellow at Stanford
 ’s Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies. His research has 
 focused on civil and interstate war. He has also published on internationa
 l relations theory\, democratization\, foreign aid and institution buildin
 g\, and post-conflict reconstruction. Fearon is an elected member of the N
 ational Academy of Sciences (2012) and the American Academy of Arts and Sc
 iences (2002)\, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. From 200
 7 to 2010\, he was Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanfor
 d. He served as a Senior Adviser in the U.S. Department of Defense in 2021
  and 2022\, where he worked primarily with the production and implementati
 on team for the 2022 National Defense Strategy.
LOCATION:
SUMMARY:A Theory of Elite-initiated Democratization\, Illustrated with the 
 Case of Myanmar
URL;VALUE=URI:https://events.stanford.edu/event/a-theory-of-elite-initiated
 -democratization-illustrated-with-the-case-of-myanmar
CATEGORIES:Class/Seminar
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