The 2024 presidential and congressional elections are a pivotal moment for American democracy. Their outcomes will shape policy directions, test democratic institutions, influence Supreme Court appointments, and determine legislative power, impacting both domestic and global affairs.

This is the fourth in a series of four panel discussions in which Stanford’s leading social scientists will draw on their cutting-edge research to examine the multifaceted issues at play in this especially consequential election. We will explore the historical context of the presidential elections, the sources and degree of social polarization, the role of race and socio-economic status in voting, public opinion, vote and voter manipulation, electoral integrity, and the comparative dimensions of the elections in the United States.

POLLING: WHAT IS ON THE MINDS OF AMERICANS?

Attempts to understand what is in the hearts and minds of American voters has become increasingly difficult, and recent polls leading up to elections have often turned conventional wisdom on its head. This session will explore some innovative polling practices and what we learned from political polls during the 2024 elections, including from one of the largest national panel surveys that started in December 2023. Panelists will discuss what was on the minds of Americans as they entered the voting booth this fall, and the strengths and limitations of our attempts to understand voters through polling.

PANELISTS:

• David Brady, Bowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership Values, Emeritus; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and at SIEPR
• Douglas Rivers, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
• Daron Shaw, University Distinguished Teaching Professor & Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Chair of State Politics, University of Texas at Austin
• Lynn Vavreck, Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy, University of California Los Angeles

Co-sponsored and co-organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University; the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, at the Hoover Institution; and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.