"Development Mismatch? Evidence from Agricultural Projects in Pastoral Africa"

We study the consequences of a clash between contemporary development initiatives and traditional economic practices in Africa. Crop agriculture has expanded considerably across the continent in recent years. Much of this expansion has occurred in traditionally pastoral areas. This is believed to be a major cause of conflict between pastoral and agricultural ethnic groups. We test this hypothesis using geocoded data on agricultural development projects across Africa from 1995-2014. We find that implementing agricultural projects in traditionally pastoral areas leads to a two-fold increase in the risk of conflict. We find no equivalent effect for agricultural projects implemented in traditionally agricultural areas, nor for non-agricultural projects implemented in either location. We also find that this mechanism contributes to the spread of extremist-religious conflict in the form of jihadist attacks. The effects are muted when agricultural projects are paired with pastoral projects, which is more likely to occur when pastoral groups have more political power. Despite these effects on conflict, we find that crop agriculture projects increase nighttime luminosity in both agricultural and pastoral areas. Evidence from survey data suggests that the gains in pastoral areas are concentrated in on-pastoral households. Our results indicate that "development mismatch" - i.e., imposing projects that are misaligned with local communities - can be costly.

Bio

Nathan Nunn is a Professor at the Vancouver School of Economics. He studies the historical and dynamic processes of economic development, with particular attention to how institutions and culture evolve across societies. His research interests span political economy, economic history, development, cultural economics, and international trade. He holds a Canada Research Chair in cultural economics, is a Fellow of CIFAR in the Boundaries, Membership & Belonging program, an NBER Faculty Research Fellow, and a Research Fellow at BREAD, and currently serves as an editor at the Quarterly Journal of Economics. His research has examined the historical processes of a wide range of factors crucial for economic development, including distrust, gender norms, religiosity, norms of rule-following, conflict, immigration, state formation, support for democracy, kinship, religious beliefs, and zero-sum thinking.