Stanford University

*** Ph.D. Thesis/ Oral Defense ***

When climate change hits home: Understanding proactive migration decisions amid wildfires, wildfire smoke, and coastal hazards

Nina Berlin Rubin

Wednesday, November 20, 9:00 AM

Y2E2 – ROOM 299

Zoom link

Department of Earth System Science

Advisor: Dr. Gabrielle Wong-Parodi

Abstract: The wildland-urban interface and coastal zones continue to experience significant and increasing population growth. However, climate change is increasing the risks associated with living in these areas: wildfires are becoming more frequent, larger, and more intense, exposing millions to hazardous air quality, while hurricanes are becoming wetter and increasingly destructive, leading to widespread flooding and economic disruption. As these impacts intensify, households face decisions regarding adaptation strategies, including the possibility of migration. This form of climate mobility remains underexplored, as highlighted by the discrepancy between models predicting millions will relocate and empirical evidence reflecting an overwhelming propensity for households to stay in high-risk areas. In this dissertation, I employ an interdisciplinary approach to better understand the determinants of prospective migration and non-migration behavior, focusing on wildfires, wildfire smoke, and coastal hazards. Chapter 1 investigates the relationships between experiences and perceptions of wildfire and wildfire smoke and migration intentions, using survey data from Californians following the state's largest recorded wildfire season in 2020. Chapters 2 and 3 build on this work by incorporating both positive and negative conceptions of sense of place, along with emotional responses to hazards, as correlates of future migration behavior across different hazard contexts, including wildfires and wildfire smoke (Chapter 2) and hurricanes and nuisance flooding (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 examines perceived and modeled assessments of risk reduction between intended migration origins and destinations, evaluating the adaptive potential of voluntary migration in mitigating wildfire, wildfire smoke, and extreme heat risk. Together, these chapters provide practical and theoretical insights into climate migration decision-making through a psychological lens, offering contributions for refining climate migration forecasting models and supporting planning and resilience efforts for communities on the frontlines of climate change.