“Climate Migration Amplifies Demographic Change and Population Aging”

The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modelled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change -- enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas.  Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 years of environmental migration in the US to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible RCP-SSP scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6M- 28M [5.7M - 53M] – 5.3 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4M - 10M). We also project a significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. %The potential for "demographically stuck" populations has received scant attention but could occur in heavily impacted areas. Furthermore, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.

Bio

Dr. Mathew Hauer, is an Assistant Professor of Sociology at Florida State University who studies the impacts of climate change on society. His research focuses on how migration induced by sea level rise could reshape the U.S. population distribution. The New York Times, National Geographic, Time Magazine, Popular Science, USA Today, and others have featured his research. Before coming to Florida State University, Dr. Hauer spent eight years directing the Applied Demography Program at the University of Georgia where he provided valuable demographic research to local, state, and federal governments. Dr. Hauer received his PhD is Geography from the University of Georgia and his M.S. and B.S. degrees from Florida State University.

A special thanks to Professor Gabrielle Wong-Parodi for bringing this speaker to us for this seminar. Also, thanks to Professor Morgan O’Neill & Professor Jamie Jones for co-instructing and running this Seminar Series this Spring by bringing you experts in the fields as we learn from them. ​​​​