BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:icalendar-ruby
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
X-WR-CALNAME:Geophysics Seminar -Kaustubh Thirumalai\, "Paleoclimate Constr
 aints on Extreme El Niño in a Warming World"
X-WR-TIMEZONE:Pacific Time (US & Canada)
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260513T162420Z
UID:tag:localist.com\,2008:EventInstance_52393082017977
DTSTART:20260416T190000Z
DTEND:20260416T200000Z
DESCRIPTION:Extreme El Niño events amplify floods\, droughts\, and wildfir
 e risk worldwide\, yet models still disagree on how ENSO variability will 
 evolve under anthropogenic warming. Using multi-century CESM1.2 simulation
 s spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to future scenarios\, together with in
 dividual foraminiferal analyses (including new central Pacific/Line Island
 s constraints)\, we show that ENSO variability weakens substantially in gl
 acial climates and strengthens under greenhouse warming\, primarily becaus
 e extreme El Niño events are triggered and sustained more frequently. The
  key mechanism is state-dependent air–sea coupling: a stronger Walker ci
 rculation deepens the mixed layer and contracts the warm pool\, weakening 
 the Bjerknes feedback and suppressing extremes\; the converse occurs in wa
 rmer climates. We contend that the identified mechanism points to an incre
 ased risk of intensifying El Niño events under future climate scenarios. 
 \n\n\nSpeaker-suggested reading: Thirumalai\, K.\, DiNezio\, P.N.\, Partin
 \, J.W. et al. Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glaci
 al changes. Nature 634\, 374–380 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-
 024-07984-y
GEO:37.426402;-122.172635
LOCATION:Mitchell Earth Sciences\, 350/372
SUMMARY:Geophysics Seminar -Kaustubh Thirumalai\, "Paleoclimate Constraints
  on Extreme El Niño in a Warming World"
URL;VALUE=URI:https://events.stanford.edu/event/geophysics-seminar-kaustubh
 -thirumalai-paleoclimate-constraints-on-extreme-el-nino-in-a-warming-world
 -6233
CATEGORIES:Class/Seminar
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