Skillful prediction and projection of tropical cyclone (TC) activity are essential for storm preparedness and risk mitigation, particularly as TC impacts are expected to intensify in a warming climate due to rising sea levels and increased atmospheric moisture. Slowly varying tropical oceanic conditions have traditionally been regarded as a primary driver of TC variability. However, recent studies suggest that extratropical processes also exert a significant influence. We show that Northern Hemisphere summertime stationary waves integrate tropical and extratropical influences within a unified framework, which provides new insight into the variability and predictability of TC activity across the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. We further explore the application of this framework to projections of future TC activity.

Speaker-suggested reading:     Z. Wang, G. Zhang, T.J. Dunkerton, & F. Jin, Summertime stationary waves integrate tropical and extratropical impacts on tropical cyclone activity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117 (37) 22720-22726, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010547117 (2020).