This talk explores shifts in religiosity and attitudes towards secularism in Turkey under the Islamist rule of the AKP. Using two waves of original household surveys conducted in the same districts and neighborhoods in 2019 and 2024, and employing pseudo-panel techniques, it identifies a clear trend towards secularization at the individual level within Turkish society. Drawing on both observational and experimental data, it tests various explanations for this shift, including rising educational attainment, the impact of traumatic events (such as the pandemic and earthquakes), and backlash against the policies of the Islamist government. The findings indicate that individuals, particularly those aged 35 to 55, are more likely to embrace secular values in response to the government's Islamist policies and practices. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of social and cultural change in Muslim-majority societies.

Aytuğ Şaşmaz is an assistant professor of political science at Bryn Mawr College, focusing on secular-religious electoral competition, political parties, and democratic decline, primarily in Middle East and North Africa. He also researches social policy in ethnically and organizationally diverse contexts and the role of international organizations in refugee movements.

His current book project examines why secular parties in the MENA region struggled to present a viable electoral alternative to Islamist parties after the 2011-2013 uprisings. His dissertation, which forms the foundation of this project, won Harvard Government Department’s Edward M. Chase Prize for the best dissertation on a subject related to world peace.

His work has appeared or is forthcoming in Comparative Political Studies, Governance, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Development Economics, and World Development.

Before joining Bryn Mawr, Aytuğ was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (2021-22). He earned his PhD in Political Science from Harvard in 2021, along with MA and MSc degrees from Brown and LSE. He is a proud alumnus of Boğaziçi University in Istanbul.