This week's speaker is:

Aniket Verma, Ph.D. Candidate, Stanford University
"Quantifying Uncertainty in Urban Water Demand Projections"

Abstract:

Water demand projections are essential for urban water supply planning. Yet, long-term demand projections are highly overestimated and uncertain, potentially warranting unneeded costly infrastructure, which may lead to irreversible environmental impacts and exacerbate water affordability outcomes. While demand forecasting methods have improved, uncertainty in long-term demand projections remains poorly understood. Our study develops a novel uncertainty characterization framework that can quantify and partition uncertainty in long-term urban water demand projections across planning-relevant spatial scales. Results show that demand uncertainty at the household-, neighborhood-, and city-scale is dominated by human behavior, population growth and housing diversity, and economic trends and policy action, respectively. Our analysis offers new insights into the magnitude and sources of urban water demand uncertainty, informing utility decisions about urban water supply planning, infrastructure investments, and conservation policies.

Bio:

Aniket is a third-year PhD candidate in Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) at Stanford University and is advised by Prof. Sarah Fletcher. He completed his MS in Environmental Engineering at Stanford in 2023 and is a recipient of the 2025 Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Postgraduate Scholarship-Doctoral (PGSD). His research integrates a systems modeling framework grounded in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) and reinforcement learning (RL) principles together with uncertainty quantification and hydrologic and econometric modeling. His primary research area focuses on investigating the impact of demand uncertainty in urban water resources planning.

The topics of this seminar are broad but typically fall under technologies’ scaling potential and impact on (the system of) people, the environment and the economy. A particular focus is placed on the interaction potential of technologies with the energy, water, and material systems. Our goal is to create an intimate, collaborative space for students, postdocs, scientists, and PIs within Stanford across micro-level (material and technology) to macro-level (system) interests. These seminars will provide an opportunity to disseminate insights from your studies, connect with fellow researchers, and strengthen bonds across the community.