The Promise of New Technologies and Big Data in Earthquake Loss Modelling: Hype or Hope?

Vitor Silva
Head of Risk Engineering Risk at the Global Earthquake Model (GEM)
March 22nd, 3:00 pm
Y2E2 Room 101

Abstract: The global seismic risk model released by GEM in 2023 indicates that less than 13% of the global building stock has been built following design regulations with seismic provisions, and almost half is exposed to moderate to high seismic hazard. This combination of high vulnerability and seismic hazard has led, rather unsurprisingly, to an increase in the economic losses and number of affected people due to earthquakes since modern records started in the 1970s. This increasing trend in the impact of earthquakes has encouraged the scientific community to explore new technologies, models, and sources of data to improve the accuracy and reliability of risk analysis, as well as the efficiency and financial viability of risk mitigation measures. These scientific and technological advancements have affected all components of earthquake risk (seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). However, are these new products expected to significantly change the practice of seismic hazard modelling, derivation of vulnerability models, and creation of exposure models? Or do they offer only incremental improvements that may not necessarily justify the increased complexity? In other words, are they just “hype” or do they bring some “hope”?

Short Bio: Vitor is the Head of Risk Engineering Risk at the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). He leads studies in structural vulnerability, exposure modelling and probabilistic seismic risk assessment in dozens of countries. His research covers the assessment of earthquake impact at the global scale, incorporation of the temporal component in earthquake risk, and exploration of machine learning technology in the assessment of earthquake hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. He led the development of the Global Seismic Risk Model release in 2018. He has authored more than 100 publications in peer-reviewed journals and earned several awards in the earthquake engineering field.